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Lung Cancer Prediction Tool
Lung Cancer Prediction Tool
Calculates a long-term smoker's risk of developing lung cancer in the next 10 years
open calculator

This prediction tool can assess a long-term smoker's risk of developing lung cancer in the next 10 years based on the person's age, sex, smoking history, and asbestos exposure. Knowing about risk can help clinicians and patients make decisions about health care, such as whether to get screened for lung cancer.

Our research shows that among long-term smokers over the age of 50, risks of developing lung cancer can vary. However, the lung cancer risk of a person who has never smoked is typically much lower than the lowest percentages calculated by this tool. Quitting smoking not only reduces risk of lung cancer, but reduces risk of many other smoking-related health problems.

Who Can Use This Tool?

The tool can assess lung cancer risk of people who meet all of these conditions:

  • Age: 50 to 75 years old
  • Smoking History: 10 to 60 cigarettes a day for 25 to 55 years
  • Current Status: Current smokers, and former smokers who quit 20 years ago or less

How Was This Tool Developed?

Supporting Publications
Supporting Publications
Journal articles that support this prediction tool
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Researchers at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, in collaboration with the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, developed and tested this risk assessment tool. The tool is based on data from the Carotene and Retinol Efficacy Trial (CARET), a large, randomized trial of lung cancer prevention. More information about the development of this tool is available in: Bach PB et al. Variations in lung cancer risk among smokers. J Natl Cancer Inst 2003;95:470.

Use the Lung Cancer Risk Assessment Tool Online (Macromedia Flash application)

Our online tool requires Macromedia Flash 6.0. If you do not have it, you will be prompted to download the software, and directed to Macromedia's download site. The download takes less than one minute.

Downloadable Software

The Lung Cancer Risk Assessment Tool is also available as downloadable software, in Macromedia Flash, Palm (including Treo 600), and Pocket PC versions.

Our downloadable tools are in compressed (.zip) files. You will need file compression software (e.g, WinZip, PKZIP) to open the files.

If you have questions or comments about this tool, please contact us at publicaffairs@mskcc.org


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Last Updated: May. 30, 2003
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