Can Women with Early-Stage Breast Cancer Safely Avoid Chemotherapy?

Medical oncologist and breast cancer doctor Tiffany Traina

MSK medical oncologist Tiffany Traina discusses treatment options with a patient.

There’s a new genomic test in town — but can it really provide the payoff it claims for women with breast cancer?

The test, called MammaPrint, uses patterns of gene expression to assess a woman’s risk of having a recurrence of breast cancer following surgery. She and her doctor can then use this information to decide whether chemotherapy is needed after the operation, a treatment known as adjuvant chemotherapy. MammaPrint’s utility was evaluated in a large phase III trial, the results of which were presented in April at the annual meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR); a paper on the study is being published today in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM).

According to the study, women with early-stage breast cancer deemed to have a high risk of recurrence by standard clinical measures — such as tumor size and grade — but a low risk by MammaPrint did about equally well whether they received adjuvant chemotherapy or not. Just under 95% of women whose tumors fell into this category and who received no chemotherapy were still alive and free of distant metastases five years later.

Because chemotherapy can be associated with significant risk of toxicity — including future cancers — there is great interest among oncologists and patients in avoiding unnecessary treatment. Based on these new findings, the investigators of this study (called MINDACT, for Microarray In Node negative Disease may Avoid ChemoTherapy) conclude that about 46% of clinically defined high-risk patients who are currently prescribed chemotherapy may not really need it.

This was big news at the AACR conference, and garnered a lot of attention in the press. Memorial Sloan Kettering’s Physician-in-Chief, José Baselga, who is on the board of the group that ran the study, called the results “practice-changing,” adding, “This study is telling us in a very clear way we can spare many women chemotherapy.”

MammaPrint is not the only genomic test on the market: Oncotype DX, the one most commonly used in the US — as well as at MSK — also aims to spare women from unnecessary chemotherapy. So how can patients make sense of the pros and cons of each? To find out, we did some digging.

A Tale of Two Tests

Oncotype DX is made by California-based Genomic Health. To date, it is the only test officially recommended by the National Comprehensive Cancer Network, a consortium of US-based cancer centers that develops evidence-based treatment guidelines.

MammaPrint was developed in the Netherlands by a company called Agendia, but is approved by the FDA for use in the US and is covered by most insurance.

Both tests use gene-expression signatures to assess recurrence risk, but there are important differences between them. Oncotype uses a signature of 21 genes that relate primarily to estrogen signaling, which is known to influence cancer aggressiveness. MammaPrint uses a signature of 70 genes that were identified “agnostically” by comparing tumors that had a good outcome to those that did not.

Oncotype gives a graded scale of risk broken up into low, intermediate, and high risk categories, whereas MammaPrint is either low or high risk. Oncotype is applicable only to estrogen receptor (ER)–positive tumors; MammaPrint can be used for both ER-positive and ER-negative tumors.

Perhaps the biggest difference between the two tests is the percentage of women whom they classify as low risk. With Oncotype, about 15% of women with early-stage breast cancers are categorized as such, versus about 45% of women with MammaPrint.

“That’s a big difference,” says Dr. Baselga. “With MammaPrint, you identify more patients who are candidates for avoiding chemotherapy.”

And yet, because of the way the MINDACT study was designed, there are some important caveats for doctors and patients to consider when drawing conclusions about MammaPrint — and when interpreting who is considered low risk by either test.

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Prognostic versus Predictive

The MINDACT study was a phase III, prospective randomized trial that enrolled nearly 7,000 women from 111 cancer centers in nine countries in Europe. Each participant had her tumor evaluated in two ways: by a clinical tool called Adjuvant! Online, which assesses standard clinical measures like size, lymph node involvement, grade, and age, and by MammaPrint. Those women whose tumors were scored as low risk of recurrence by both measures were given no chemotherapy. Those whose tumors were scored as high risk by both measures were given chemotherapy. Those whose tumors were discordant between the two measures were randomized to either follow the clinical tool or the MammaPrint test when determining whether to receive chemotherapy. The investigators then followed these groups for five years and assessed distant metastatic disease-free survival.

What the study team found was that the group of clinically high risk/genomically low risk women who did not receive chemotherapy had excellent survival: 94.7 of them had no evidence of distant metastases after five years. The other group, which received chemotherapy, also did very well: 95.9% of them had the same result. But the study was not designed to determine whether this difference between the two arms was statistically significant — one of its limitations.

Breast Cancer Clinical Trials & Research
Through research and clinical trials, we’ve made major advances in treating breast cancer. You may be able take part in a clinical trial during your treatment.

“You can’t rule out a benefit [of chemotherapy],” says Maura Dickler, Interim Chief of MSK’s Breast Medicine Service. Dr. Dickler co-authored an editorial on the MammaPrint study with Clifford Hudis, former Chief of MSK’s Breast Medicine Service and current CEO of the American Society of Clinical Oncology, that was also published today in NEJM. Though both groups did very well, she says, it remains theoretically possible that chemotherapy gives some extra benefit. And, indeed, the trend was for chemotherapy to add a benefit (albeit a small one, of about 1.5%).

Another way of saying this is that MammaPrint has prognostic but not predictive value. This is in contrast to Oncotype DX, which has both.

“Oncotype gives you a risk assessment of how likely your breast cancer is to recur,” says Tiffany Traina, a medical oncologist at MSK who specializes in breast cancer. This is its prognostic value. “But where it has real value to us is that it has predictive value, meaning not only do I know you have a high-risk tumor, but I know that giving you chemotherapy is going to make a significant impact. Or I see that you have a low-risk cancer and I now have proof that chemo is not going to help, so we can avoid using it.”

For that reason, many doctors who currently use Oncotype DX will likely continue to use it over MammaPrint.

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Factoring in Side Effects

Given that metastatic breast cancer is almost universally fatal, there is a great interest in not under-treating patients — which is why most of them currently receive some form of chemotherapy. But the downside of this approach is that it means there is a group of women who are probably over-treated, getting chemotherapy when they don’t really need it and experiencing a decreased quality of life as a result.

Although not all chemotherapy drugs carry serious side effects, many of them do. Dr. Baselga rattles off a list of potential issues, including “an increased risk of developing leukemia, hair loss, menopause, potential risk of heart damage, risk of ending up in the hospital with a low blood count, and infections.”

There is evidence in the literature that women will do a lot for small benefits.
Maura N. Dickler

These potential drawbacks, he says, represent an important counterbalance to the potential benefits of chemotherapy and must be seriously considered by both the doctor and the patient when making a treatment decision.

For some women, these risks may be worth it to improve their overall chances of survival. “There is evidence in the literature that women will do a lot for small benefits,” says Dr. Dickler. “They’ll take chemotherapy for even a 2 to 3 percent improvement in outcome.” For others, quality of life may be more important.

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Weighing the Numbers

Everyone agrees that it would be valuable to have a test that provided a clear quantification of the “cost” of forgoing chemotherapy, so that women could weigh the risks and benefits of that choice. Unfortunately, as Drs. Dickler and Hudis point out in their editorial, the MINDACT study does not permit this sort of calculation.

To see why this is so, we need to know a bit more about the study design. The study’s primary goal was to show that the MammaPrint test could yield an outcome, in terms of survival rate, that was better than a predetermined benchmark. That benchmark was a distant metastasis-free survival rate of 92% at five years. The actual study result of 94.7% exceeded that benchmark, and so the test was deemed a success. But the statistical margin of error was plus or minus 2.2% points on either side of that number, meaning it could be as low as 92.5% or as high as 96.2%. And so the decision to forego chemotherapy becomes, in part, a question of how comfortable one is with that level of uncertainty.

“The argument against chemo is a subjective one,” says Dr. Hudis. “Is 92% [the predetermined benchmark of success] good enough to exclude a chemo benefit? My answer is, I don’t know.”

By comparison, the trial evaluating Oncotype DX found with very good statistical evidence that 99% of women classified as low risk (a score of <11) who did not have chemotherapy were alive and free of disease at five years. (Although, again, the number of women who fall into this category is relatively small: 16%.)

Large, randomized studies evaluating the benefit of chemotherapy (or lack thereof) in women with intermediate scores on Oncotype (between 11 and 25) are ongoing and will help to answer the question of whether more women can be spared unnecessary chemotherapy.

Right now, says Dr. Hudis, comparing the number of low-risk patients as judged by Oncotype DX and MammaPrint is like comparing apples to oranges.

Right now, says Dr. Hudis, comparing the number of low-risk patients as judged by Oncotype DX and MammaPrint is like comparing apples to oranges, given the different definitions of low risk across the trials, the relative strength of the evidence evaluating the impact of chemotherapy, and the subjectivity that patients and doctors bring to their assessments of risk and benefit.

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Tailoring Treatment

Using gene-expression signatures to make treatment decisions represents the latest in a long line of efforts to tailor treatments to individual patients. It used to be that women with early-stage breast cancer were routinely given radical mastectomies, on the theory that cure was possible only by removing all possible places where breast cancer cells may have spread locally — including breast tissue, surrounding lymph nodes, and even muscles of the chest wall. MSK surgeons in particular were vocal supporters of this approach for many decades.

By the mid-1970s, a competing view emerged that favored less-invasive surgical procedures (like lumpectomy) paired with adjuvant therapies like radiation and chemotherapy, which were designed to kill circulating tumor cells that remained in the body after surgery. By the 1990s, virtually all women with early-stage breast cancer were being treated with adjuvant chemotherapy to help prevent recurrence. 

Scientists now know that breast tumors differ widely in their aggressiveness. Tumors that overexpress the protein HER2, for example, are much more aggressive than those that do not. Even very small (less than 1 centimeter) HER2-positive tumors can be very dangerous and call for specialized treatment (usually with the targeted drug trastuzumab [Herceptin] plus chemotherapy). But other tumors, even large ones, can be more indolent. Genomic tests help doctors to discriminate between more and less aggressive tumors, and therefore assess risk of recurrence.

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A Better Test?

Oncotype DX was the first genomic test available for assessing risk of recurrence. As such, says Dr. Baselga, it has spared many women from unnecessary chemotherapy. The test is performed as a standard part of care at MSK for patients whose tumors are bigger than 5 millimeters and estrogen receptor–positive.

What does MammaPrint add to this picture? “It’s an additional piece of information that might be useful in some cases to discern how a person will fare without chemotherapy,” Dr. Baselga says.

Though there are limitations, the test might help some women feel more comfortable with their decision to forego chemotherapy.

Dr. Baselga adds: “This is not the gospel, but it’s something to show patients, to help them make an informed decision.”

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Commenting is disabled for this blog post.

This information is my life. Annual mammogram in April, diagnosis of invasive lobular, lumpectomy May 18, in surgery radiation, an additional 5 weeks of radiation because I had lobular versus ductal. Oncotype score of 23. I was pushing for Mammaprint to educate myself but was running up against the 12 week cut-off to start chemo. Started chemo last week on August 18.

My frustration is that I could have been pursing the additional testing during my radiation and not ran out of time. I get that part of the research is on me. I was asking my oncologist about this early on and told my cancer center only used used oncotype. I realize now that I could have done more for myself. However, doesn't the medical team treating me share in helping me with awareness.

How many other women right now are facing this same set of mazes with treatment and are expected to understand all of this to make an informed decision. I plan to ask my medical team for a face to face to go over how my situation was handled. Hopefully my situation may help someone else make different decisions in the immediate time after surgery.

Lori, thank you for sharing your thoughts. We’re wishing you the best!

Good morning
Forgive me with my English is not perfect
I detected my breast cancer with MRI (it was impossible with mammography and ultrasound even after MRI) so I had an operation to remove tumor with a healthy tissue 9 mm around tumor margins
The histopathology report : invasive ductal cancer and many DCIS
The tumor was 15 mm ,the sentinel nodes were negative
Er receptors:negative ,k67:20%
Her 2 enriched ,grade : 3
I gave my slides for second and third opinion and the report was DCISM
The oncologist say that the treatment is different (chemo or not)
So after all this I am completely confused
I would really appreciate if you could help me
Best Regards
Despoina Liamidi

I'm so happy for all the available information Sloan Kettering Cancer center is offering to people like me and others. The advance in the treatment for breast cancer is amazing. Thanks some institutions don't understand that be diagnosed with breast cancer is traumatic also. Thanks

Dear Gladys, we are glad to know you have found the information on our blog useful. Thank you for your comment!

Great information. Does this pertain to TNBC also?

Dear Blanche,
We forwarded your question to Dr. Maura Dickler, a breast cancer expert at MSK, and she said, “Yes - Mammaprint can be performed in patients with TNBC to predict their prognosis, but it is not generally useful to make decisions about chemotherapy in this subpopulation.” The Oncotype DX test is only for women with ER-positive tumors, so it is not applicable to women with TNBC. Thank you for your comment.

I am very thankful and grateful to MSKCC for keeping me alive for 20yrs. I am presently being treated for many different cancers-2 of which (stage-4) could have killed me. The most recent DX(stage 1)-Breast Cancer. I had the Oncotype test done. It was worth the wait (5 wks to be exact). If the test was done in NY I would have gotten my results right away as always. This test is specific for breast cancer and was life saving once again. Sloan Kettering has saved my life so many times, I have lost count. I am confident they will continue to keep me around as long as they can. They have provided me and blessed me with all the world renowned physicians, the newest and best scientist and technology, tests, labs and scans. I am surrounded by tons of extremely awesome nurse angels(in-patient & out-patient care). Life has been a roller coaster of drama but, the "Life" MSKCC has given me is priceless! MSKCC doctors always treat me like a person, an informed, educated and aware of her health care person. I just celebrated my 50th B-day and I'm gracing my gray hairs, wrinkles, and fluff I put on. I didn't think I would make it to 30 but, by the grace of God, MSKCC scientists, and awesome care taking...I will fight to live another day.

Dear Stacy, we are glad to know you have felt well-cared for by your MSK care team. Thank you for your kind words on our blog. Wishing you a very happy 50th birthday!

In July, 2016 I had a lumpectomy for a tumor I found. After a mammo, sono and MRI, it was determined that I would have just the lump removed. Now, docs are suggesting chemo/radiation as it is HER2 positive. I feel fine, no pain, and just wondering if this treatment is really necessary. Any ideas?

I am 46 years old. I was diagnosed with invasive ductal carcinoma, estrogen & prog +, her2 -, as well as dcis behind my nipple. I had a unilateral mastectomy. They took the 3 sentinel nodes and one had cancer.(11mm) and there was lymphovascular space invasion present within my breast tissue. My tumor was 4.5 CM and is grade 3. They saw some microvascular invasion. My oncotype dx is a 17. I'm being treated at a NCI. They are recommending radiation-IMRT with 28 treatments. My cancer will be presented at the tumor board since my oncotype was a 17, but my tumor itself has some aggressive features. and there is a discrepancy between my path report and my low oncotype score. My question is do you think there is benefit for me to get another genomic test-the MammaPrint- to use in addition to the path report & Oncotype dx to determine if I need chemo? In addition, from what I have presented, would radiation be considered necessary and/or the standard of care or is there a decision to be made about whether I really need radiation as well? Also, if i want a consult at MSK and I live in the US, would I be able to do so by having my reports sent without traveling to NYC or would I need to be present in person for a second opinion? Thank you so much in advance for your help!

I had a lumpectomy on July 29, 2 weeks later was told all margins were clear, no cancer in lymph nodes. Is chemo really necessary?

Dear Renee, we are glad to hear that your surgery went well and that no cancer cells were found in your lymph nodes. We can’t make specific recommendations without more information and an in person consultation. If your doctor is recommending chemotherapy and you would like to arrange for a second opinion with one of our specialists, please call our Physician Referral Service at 800-525-2225. Our staff there can help you make an appointment and let you know what test results and other information we would need send over in advance. Thank you for reaching out to us.

I am a breast cancer survivor. I underwent chemo. It’s a NCCN recommended therapy for the kind of cancer I had. Based on predictive tools, chemo probably improved my 10 year chance of survival by about 2 to 4%. Even when I asked questions about statistics, prognosis and survival, I wasn’t told this by either my primary or second opinion oncologist (neither is at MSKCC). My point is not to criticize my individual doctors. I think that they are both good doctors and that what they did is standard practice. I think that it is so acceptable within the profession for this information to be withheld that doctors don’t even consider sharing it. I am very disillusioned by how poor a job the profession is do at sharing risk/benefit information. If MammaPrint and Oncotype - or anything else - are tools for getting more complete information to patients, that is a step in the right direction. If patients don’t have full and complete information about risks and benefits, they cannot give informed consent to treatment. This is critically important, especially with therapies like chemo which involve many risks, side effects and can precipitate other, non-medical problems, too. My point is to raise awareness among both patients and practitioners: practitioners have a duty to share relevant information with patients. If they haven’t, they haven’t done their job.

Dear Lumpie, we agree that clear communication about the risks and benefits of treatment options being considered is critical to helping patients make informed decisions about their care. Thank you for sharing your thoughts and experience on our blog.

I was just diagnosed with invasive ductal carcinoma, ER positive, PR negative, HER2 positive, lymph node negative cancer. Tumor is grade 2, and is estimated to be appx 3.3 cm. I have elected to pursue neoadjuvant therapy and then have a lumpectomy. Spoke with 2 oncologists in denver who refuse to consider forgoing chemo (one will only do TCHP the other will let me choose between TCHP and ACTHP) - did not bring up Oncotype DX as a possibility to rule out chemo. I recognize that i will need herceptin etc for a year and tamoxifin but would like to make an educated decision about chemo. Do you know of any docs in Colorado with whom to discuss these options? thank you.

Dear Liz, we are sorry to hear about your diagnosis. You might try searching for a comprehensive cancer center near you by going to the National Cancer Institute’s website: A quick search shows the University of Colorado Cancer Center in Aurora as a possible consideration.

If you would like to think about making an appointment for a consultation with one of our specialists to discuss possible next steps in your care, please call our Physician Referral Service at 800-525-2225. Thank you for reaching out to us.

56 y.o. with Stage 1B, Grade 2; Ki67 25%, 3 sentinel lymph nodes with 1 Micromet. Oncotype score 21. Told Chemo would give 1-3% benefit. Scared not to do the chemo.

With low recurrence on mamatest but sentinel node positive with micro breast cancer should I take chemotherapy. I have already had two surgical lumpectomies and my CA has been eliminated from breast. What are my concerns about spread...Does chemo really provide me with more assurance than radiation. I am 47 and have had fibroid tumors in uterus..shoud hysterectomy total be elected as requested by my oncologist. My uncle was Myron Melamed one of your dedicated pathologists. Please answer my questions.

Dear Barbara, we’re very sorry to hear you’re going through this. Unfortunately, we are not able to provide medical advice on our blog, If you would like to make an appointment with one of our doctors, who will be able to review your records and provide you with treatment or a second opinion, you can call 800-525-2225 or go to for more information. Thank you for your comment, and best wishes to you.

72 years old scheduled for lumpectomy, lymph nodes are family history of cancer. chemo suggested as a precaution. Do I need chemo?

Does Memorial Sloan Kettering test for Ki 67? Is it an accurate predictor of breast cancer aggressiveness and prognosis? I've read varying reports on its accuracy. My tumor was 1.2 cm, invasive ductal carcinoma. I had a lumpectomy two weeks ago. Clear margins and no lymph node involvement. Stage I, Grade 2. ER positive, HER2 negative. Am healing really well and my affected breast has remained symmetrical with the other. Met with oncologist for the first time yesterday. She seemed concerned about my high Ki 67 score (40%) and suggested an Oncotype DX as the next step before a treatment plan is decided. How much credence does MSK place in the Ki 67 score? Thank you.

Dear Anna, we’re sorry to hear about your diagnosis. We checked with some of our experts, who explained that at MSK we do not assess Ki67 index routinely due to the difficulties in quantifying the staining precisely. Thus, we place more emphasis on other techniques for evaluating risk and benefit in women with smaller, node negative, ER-positive breast cancers. Ki67 is one of five genes involved in tumor cell proliferation that are part of the Oncotype Dx multigene panel.

We recommend that you discuss this further with your doctor. If you would like to arrange for a second opinion at MSK, you can call 800-525-2225 or go to for more information on making an appointment. Thank you for your comment, and best wishes to you.

My daughter had a lumpectomy and nodes were benign. Her Onco test was a 22 do you recommend chemo or is hormone therapy and radiation enough

Dear Laura, we’re sorry to hear about your daughter’s diagnosis. Unfortunately we are not able to make treatment recommendations on our blog. If she would like to come to MSK for a consultation with one of our experts, she can call 800-525-2225 or go to for more information. Thank you for your comment, and best wishes to both of you.

1. Is there any data on how many women with an Oncotype Test Score of 27 choose chemotherapy? 2. Does it matter if an intermediate score is close to the 31 cutoff or are all intermediate scores considered alike as far as chemo recommendations? (For instance, I notice several articles refer to the intermediate score as if it were 11-25 instead of 31 as endpoint?) What considerations or factors do oncologists take into account when advising women with intermediate scores whether to do chemo or not?

I was diagnosed as weakly ER (1 staining) 60% PR negative early breast cancer. I was lymph-node and sentinel node negative. I was also grade 3. I was not offered the oncotype test and was told I HAD to have chemo. Why? What I have read is that high clinical risk does not always mean you have to have chemo. I also had a complete PCR after neoadjunct chemo. My onocologist does not give me my "prognosis" moving forward, only that she wants me on anti-hormonal therapy which I refused. If anti-hormones would work on me, why did I have chemo? Thank you for this service.

My Oncotype was 5 but without an aromatase inhibitor it is a 10. My cancer was 1.5 cm and on Dec. 2, 2016, I had a lumpectomy and radiation treatments. I believe that risk vs recurrence should be explored. And doctors should tell the patient what the risk is vs the rate or possibility of recurrence. Absolute risk vs Relative risk are what you need to inquire with your oncologist. They don't really want you to look at it that way but that is the most accurate way to determine rate of recurrence. I refused the aromatase inhibitors as I didn't wish to only receive a 5% (at most) gain. There are side effects and blood clots and heart issues with the aromatase inhibitor (as well as loss of sex drive, bones hurting and feeling tired). The cure can kill you before the cancer comes back!

Good morning, I am based in israel and under an oncologist here, I have stage 1 BC double negative for Estrogene and Progesterone and Her2 positive score 30% 2 lymph nodes clear and 1.5 tumour removed in a lumpectomy, with clear margins, 1 month ago. I was offered chemo and herceptin, for 12 weeks. I really do not want to do this unless really necessary, would this test benefit me?

Dear Janey, we’re sorry to hear about your diagnosis. Unfortunately, we are not able to make treatment recommendations on our blog. We recommend that you discuss the pros and cons of this test with your current healthcare team. Thank you for your comment and best wishes to you.

A tale of two tumors and testing. One tumor was rated Oncotype 9 (low risk) but Mammaprint high risk (luminalB). The second tumor was HER2 equivocal in four tests (so no Oncotype done), but with Blueprint, was rated Her2 Neg, and Mammaprint low risk.
So, in the testing world, the results flipped from one kind of testing to the other.
Ultimately, you have to make the best decision for yourself. So frustrating when the results are so unclear.

I have invasive lobular carcinoma, Er/Pr (+) HERS (-). I had a mastectomy, also had DICS, after surgery, (single mastectomy). I had 3 lymph nodes removed at time of surgery I was told they were cancer free so no additional removed. After the path came back, 2 of the three had cancer and the margin from the removal was extremely close. Oncologist did a mamoprint and it came back low. So I was told that chemo would not benefit me, would do more harm than good. I was told that I needed radiation. My question is... they radiate the area... kill all the cancer that might be left, or in those lymph nodes. But, what happens if some has left the area already. Am I just a ticking time bomb... waiting and watching... where it turns up?

Dear Wendy, we’re sorry to hear about what you’re going through. We recommend that you discuss your concerns with your care team. You may also want to ask for a referral to a psycho-oncologist. These therapists are specially trained to work with cancer survivors and address issues such as a fear of cancer coming back. Thank you for your comment and best wishes to you.

I’ve been going for mammon’s and songs every year for years. Last one dec 2018. They said all clear. Just got do with invasive lobular carcinoma. How is it possible that this wasn’t detected 7 months ago

Dear Amy, we’re very sorry to hear about your diagnosis. We recommend that you discuss your concerns with your doctor. If you are interested in coming to MSK for a second opinion or for treatment, you can make an appointment online or call 800-525-2225 during regular business hours. Thank you for your comment and best wishes to you.