The prediction tools, also known as prognostic nomograms, located on the MSKCC Web site are for general health information only. The prediction tools are not to be used as a substitute for medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment of any health condition or problem.
Users of the prediction tools should not rely on information provided by the prediction tools for their own health problems. Questions should be addressed to your own physician or other healthcare provider.
MSKCC makes no warranties, nor express or implied representations whatsoever, regarding the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, comparative or controversial nature, or usefulness of any information contained or referenced in the prediction tools. MSKCC does not assume any risk whatsoever for your use of the prediction tools or the information contained herein. Health related information changes frequently and therefore information contained in the prediction tools may be outdated, incomplete or incorrect.
Use of the prediction tools does not create an express or implied physician-patient relationship. MSKCC does not endorse or claim validity for the prediction tools found on the MSKCC Web site. The activities and products of MSKCC and its developers and agents (collectively MSKCC) are not endorsed by our past, present, or future employers. MSKCC does not record specific prediction tool user information and does not contact users of the prediction tools.
You are hereby advised to consult with a physician or other professional healthcare provider prior to making any decisions, or undertaking any actions or not undertaking any actions related to any healthcare problem or issue you might have at any time, now or in the future. In using the prediction tools, you agree that neither MSKCC nor any other party is or will be liable or otherwise responsible for any decision made or any action taken or any action not taken due to your use of any information presented in the prediction tools.
Our post-radical prostatectomy nomogram can be used by patients after their surgical treatment for prostate cancer. Using a dynamic statistical formula, this nomogram predicts the probability of remaining cancer recurrence-free at two, five, seven, and ten years following surgery. This nomogram also predicts 15-year cancer-specific survival, meaning the likelihood that you will NOT die of prostate cancer within 15 years following surgery.
Researchers can access the coefficients and model properties by clicking here.
The results of this nomogram will apply to you if radical prostatectomy was the only treatment you received for your prostate cancer AND if your serum PSA level has been undetectable (less than 0.05 ng/mL) since surgery. If you received radiation therapy or hormone therapy (Lupron, Taxotere, Casodex, Eulexin, Zoladex, etc.) prior to surgery, the calculations of this nomogram will not be accurate.
Prostate cancer recurrence is present after radical prostatectomy when the PSA measurement has reached 0.2 ng/mL and continues to rise, and has been confirmed as such on a repeat measurement.
Results produced by this tool are based on studies conducted at large research institutions with surgeons who perform a high volume of prostate cancer procedures. All results must be understood in the context of each patient’s specific treatment plan. Patients and caregivers using this tool should discuss the result with the patient’s physician.
To gather the information required to use this nomogram, use our worksheet.
If you have received either hormone or radiation therapy for prostate cancer — if you answer “yes” to either of the following two questions — the results of this nomogram will not apply to you.
Most medical prediction models come from published studies based on fixed groups of patients. The statistical formulas for these models therefore do not change as new information becomes available. In contrast, the "dynamic" model used here — with the exception of the calculation for survival probability — draws on data from more than 10,000 prostate cancer patients treated at MSK. The model is updated several times a year as the MSK database accumulates new data, with more recent patients given more weight in the statistical analysis than patients treated many years ago. As a result, the statistical formula for the model changes slightly over time.
More on risk prediction based on dynamic models.